Análise da variabilidade climática em Belo Hhorizonte no período de 01/1961 - 12/2022

Abstract

Climate variations occur naturally but are enhanced and accelerated by human-generated causes. When analyzing historical data of precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures in Belo Horizonte from 1961 to 2022, it was possible to perceive that the regional climate has been suffering variations such as an increase in rainfall volumes and temperatures. It is very important to forecast each one of them in order to create an action plan to mitigate those uncontrolled variations. From time series of precipitation and temperatures, it was possible to identify a model to each one of them that allows describing the series and follow it every season and it’s trend, when it exists. The model adopted was the SARIMA [0,0,0][0,1,1][12] for precipitation, and to both, maximum and minimum temperatures, the model found was SARIMA [2,0,0][0,1,1][12]. Based on these models it was possible to create a forecast for 2023. Both the descriptive analysis of the data and the analysis of forecasts showed that climate changes in the city of Belo Horizonte are accelerated. For precipitations, it was possible to notice that rains with large volume of water are occurring and they are expected to continue occurring with frequency, increasing disasters such as flooding and landslides. For temperatures, the rising trend is clearly visible and the forecast is that it will remain the same, unless actions are taken to stop this heating. One of the biggest causes of global warming is the greenhouse effect and, through the descriptive analysis of the series, it was possible to associate a slight drop in the growing trend in the years 2020 and 2021 with the period of confinement in which there was a reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases. In 2022, with the end of isolation, temperatures rose again. Based on this research, it is noticed the importance of an action plan to slow down climate change in the city of Belo Horizonte.