Custos com benefícios para o financiamento de cuidados de longa duração para idosos com dependência: estimativas e projeções para o Brasil

Abstract

The reduction in mortality in Brazil has allowed individuals to reach increasingly older ages, in which there is a greater risk of addiction. Long term care (CLD) refer to monitoring services, for a long time, those elderly who become addicted, and therefore require the assistance of another person to perform activities of daily living. In Brazil, the family plays a key role as a provider of informal care for dependent elderly. However, this network of support for the elderly has been weakened by social and demographic changes such as the reduction in family size and the increase in women's participation in the labor market. This reduction of context in the provision of (potential) informal caregivers is combined with continued growth in the elderly contingent in the country, which shows the importance the improvement of access to formal care policies, since the public offering of such services is limited, as the performance of the private insurance market in this business. Considering the course of demographic changes in the country, and the need to ensure access to formal care services, this thesis aims to estimate the costs, by sex and age simple, implementing a coverage benefits in cash, for the caregivers of funding for the provision of services to older people in situations of dependency, through public policy and the private insurance market. These estimates are made using stochastic approach Monte Carlo simulation, considering different scenarios, produced according to assumptions about the behavior of the factors (demographic, the health and economic conditions) determining the trajectory of costs. The estimates for the private insurance market, with the hiring of private insurance, insured an active 60-year-old member of a group of 1,000 policyholders in the central scenario analysis (with capitalization of financing arrangements and interest rate 6% per year) transfer their individual risk, which is highly variable, for the safety of 95% for the insurance of £ 20,600 for men and £ 34,600 for women. The estimates for the benefit of offering public policy for access to formal care, in which the state would be the public insurer's risk of dependence and considering the elderly with dependence present in each calendar year future, flows of average annual expenditure of the State with the payment of benefits intended for formal care, for the total of men and women dependent, evolve from 0.8% of GDP in 2014 to 1.3% of GDP in 2033.