Voto obrigatório e igualdade política: uma análise das dimensões democráticas da norma no Brasil

Abstract

This master thesis aims at discussing and evaluating how a possible abolition of the compulsory voting law (CVL) would impact upon Brazilian democracy, especially when it comes to the political equality among social groups and cleavages. The debate on the concept of political equality, its importance and desirability is brought up, as well as the discussion on the pros and cons of the CVL, always highlighting the link between both discussions. Therefore, we intend to answer the following question: if adopted, which types of Brazilian voters would the facultative voting law bring to the polls? The hypothesis being tested is that CVL equalizes voter turnout, since socioeconomic status (SES) is a strong predictor of one's decision to vote in Brazil. The research is based on the Brazilian Electoral Study (ESEB) data, focusing on the national elections held in 2014. Quantitative methodology were used, which counted on logistic regression and structural equation models, aiming at investigating the mechanisms through which the SES influences the decision to go to the polls. The main hypothesis is generally confirmed, which allows us to conclude that, in fact, education, income, race/ethnicity and region where one lives strongly affect the decision to vote. Individual variables for instance, interest in politics, satisfaction from democracy performance in the country and partisanship also perform relevant effects over voluntary poll attendance. However, socioeconomic status impacts are not always direct. Actually, they can be largely mediated by individual factors, and interest in politics has a considerable role in such scenario. There are still two other sub-hypothesis being tested in this thesis, as they evoked from the literature, and both reinforce that a possible introduction of the noncompulsory voting law in Brazil would result in sociodemographic political inequalities, as well as attitudinal ones, in regard to the support to specific policies. Besides, such inequalities would go beyond the electoral sphere of political participation