Endividamento público e crescimento econômico: evidências teóricas e empíricas para economias desenvolvidas e emergentes

Abstract

The objective of this thesis is to demystify the dominant view in the literature related to debt thresholds and economic growth gains associated to fiscal austerity policies. In order to accomplish this objective, the starting point is the standard statistical analysis based on debt/GDP ratio ranges, undertaken in a novel manner that includes a wide range of variables aiming at identifying the transmission channels from debt to growth. Next, a set of panel data regressions is estimated through Driscoll & Kraays, FGLS, panel corrected standard errors, and SUR estimators and the causality test approach proposed by Kónya (2006) in search of robust inference related to the main determinants that encompasses the fiscal framework. Using the same set of 20 developed economies and 24 emerging economies included in Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and for a similar period (1948-2012), the results were directly compared to their work and to Herndon, Ash e Pollin (2013). Our conclusion is that in simultaneous estimations for the two set of countries, something rare in this literature, the empirical evidence give support to very different conclusions, suggesting that identical economic policies for different countries might conduce to results that are opposite to the desired outcome. From a wide empirical and methodological effort, it is notorious in our results how the progressive incorporation of (auto) correlations, heterogeneity among countries and across time, and different considerations of possible causal channels, lead to results that pose questions to the principles of excessive debt and gains stemming from adjustments in the fiscal policy, particularly for the emerging economies. Even when the histogram methodology suggested by Reinhart and Rogoff (2010), our results do allow the conclusions in this direction when we use alternative series from official sources and when we resort to series that capture the different transmission channels from debt to growth. Finally, the use of the methodology that is sensitive to contemporaneous dependency usual characteristic of a globalized public debt market reinforces the conclusions in this direction. This is done through the Panel Time-Series framework in contrast to the usual Generalized Methods of Moments that exploits simultaneously the cross-section and time series dimensions and pays attention to problems of both dimensions. It is suggested that the search for the trajectory of an inverted U for the indicator debt/GDP happens due to specificities and different stages of economic growth of the economies. Notwithstanding the adverse effects associated to explosive debt path, our work supports the idea that the search for fiscal space should be determined essentially by a pro-growth agenda. This is particularly important for the emerging economies facing simultaneously the transition path challenges, worse interest rate conditions and liquidity preference of commercial banks, and willingness of non-resident investors to (re)finance debt.