Perfil epidemiológico dos crimes de violência sexual contra mulheres em Belo Horizonte de 2014 a 2023: uma análise do SINAN

Abstract

This study aimed to analyse the epidemiological profile of sexual violence crimes against women in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, between 2014 and 2023, using data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN). The specific objectives were to describe the sociodemographic and contextual characteristics of the victims, analyze temporal trends in notifications, and identify variables associated with the increase in reported cases. This is a retrospective, descriptive epidemiological study. Data were organized in two-year periods and statistically analyzed using simple linear regression to estimate the average annual variation and multiple linear regression to explore associated factors. Twenty-nine variables were included, encompassing sociodemographic, contextual, and aggression-related characteristics. Between 2014 and 2023, 2,901 notifications of sexual violence against women aged 15 years or older were recorded, representing a 104% increase over the period and an average annual rise of 41.1 notifications (p = 0.023). A greater impact was observed among Black and Brown women, whose notifications increased by 193% (p = 0.004), highlighting the intersection between racial inequality and gender-based violence. Cases among women with higher education rose by 222%, suggesting both increased awareness of the right to report and possible shifts in victim profiles. The home was the main setting of occurrence (increase of 136%). Controversially, there was a predominance of unknown perpetrators (52.6% across the entire period), although cases involving known perpetrators increased when comparing the first and last two-year periods. Recurrence of violence increased by 205% (p = 0.046), and the perpetrator’s alcohol consumption was significantly associated with case growth (p = 0.009). The findings indicate that sexual violence against women in Belo Horizonte constitutes a serious and growing public health problem that disproportionately affects women in situations of social and racial vulnerability. The predominance of domestic settings, the rise in revictimization, and the role of alcohol underscore the complexity of the phenomenon and the need for intersectoral prevention strategies. Strengthening notification systems, improving professional training, and expanding integrated public policies are essential to address the structural determinants that sustain gender-based violence in Brazil.