Um conceito para autossuficiência em energia: abordagem sobre a demanda residencial de eletricidade em Minas Gerais com vistas à universalização

Abstract

This work consists of an exploratory and applied research, that addresses the theme of energy self-sufficiency in order to contribute with a proposal for a comprehensive definition of the term. Applying a literature review methodology on self-sufficiency, it was possible to verify that, in most cases, the meanings of autonomy and independence are almost always associated with the concept. Thus, based on these meanings, we sought to establish this relationship and contextualization within the scope of energy systems. The definition developed in this work followed the format of a pyramid, composed of a series of hierarchical requirements that would necessarily need to be fully met in order to attribute the condition of self-sufficiency in energy to the geographic region defined for study. Since the proposed concept also allows the analysis of energy sources taken in isolation, as a way of appreciating the developed concept, an exercise was carried out to assess self-sufficiency in electric energy in the state of Minas Gerais. Electric energy was chosen because it is one of the main energy sources used by society, in addition to its wide range of end uses and improvement in the population's quality of life. The case study characterized the state according to the requirements that compose the concept, from the bottom to the top: Availability of Primary Sources; Energy Sector; Energy Services; Efficiency, Sufficiency and Quality of Services Parameters; Sustainability; Universalization of Access to Energy Services, highlighting the latter, considered in this research as the most relevant. With an emphasis on the demand for electricity in the residential sector in Minas Gerais, an indicator called Basic Electricity Consumption Standard was developed to estimate the level of universalization of services considered essential. The result indicated that a significant part of the population of Minas Gerais has some type of restriction to these services. Based on universalized demand, three scenarios were designed for the demand in the residential sector in the period 2019-2030. In this same time horizon and scenarios, supply and total demand data were crossed in order to support the analysis of self-sufficiency. The results indicated that, in general terms, the state would have an energy generation infrastructure capable of meeting its own demand by 2030. In its conclusions, the work sought to draw an overview of the opportunities and barriers regarding self-sufficiency in electricity Minas Gerais and universal access to services provided by this source.