1. Repositório Institucional da UFMG
  2. Publicações Científicas e Culturais
  3. Artigo de Periódico
Use este identificador para citar o ir al link de este elemento: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/78617
Registro completo de metadatos
Campo DCValorIdioma
dc.creatorFrederico Brandãopt_BR
dc.creatorBarbara Befanipt_BR
dc.creatorJaílson Soares-filhopt_BR
dc.creatorRaoni Guerra Lucas Rajãopt_BR
dc.creatorEdenise Garciapt_BR
dc.date.accessioned2024-12-12T10:09:58Z-
dc.date.available2024-12-12T10:09:58Z-
dc.date.issued2023-
dc.citation.volume133pt_BR
dc.citation.spage1pt_BR
dc.citation.epage14pt_BR
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106866pt_BR
dc.identifier.issn0264-8377pt_BR
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1843/78617-
dc.description.resumoIn this paper, we employ for the first time a Bayesian process-tracing approach to assess the role of different interventions designed to halt deforestation. We applied the methodology to six initiatives implemented between 2006 and 2019 in the municipality of São Felix do Xingu, namely: (i) institution of protected areas, (ii) environmental monitoring and enforcement, (iii) credit restrictions, (iv) commodity agreements, (v) multistakeholder processes, and (vi) value chain projects. Bayesian process tracing is an alternative to traditional counterfactual approaches that allows the gleaning of in-depth insights into ‘causal chain’ mechanisms and complex interrelationships in individual cases, rather than identifying common or cross-cutting features across different cases. Contrary to traditional process tracing methodologies, the Bayesian approach provides analytical transparency and replicability through a formal and fine-grained assessment of the strength of the evidence. We assessed 31 individual pieces of evidence, developed using data collected through a variety of quantitative and qualitative methods. We grouped these into interventions spanning three periods of time and traced the causal mechanisms linked to their success or failure. In total, we developed nine theory components. Our results reveal that we are practically certain that four theory components are true. We are also reasonably certain or highly confident that four other theory components are true, and only cautiously confident that one component is true. Drawing on the nine components, we offer a composite theory explaining deforestation outcomes. Our findings provide four implications for global debates. Namely, they provide a strong case for the importance of conceptually distinguishing: the types of actors targeted (e.g., smallholder or medium-to-large landholders) and the frontier status (i.e., whether interventions take place in active frontiers or in consolidated areas). They also prove that interventions may be well implemented for a certain period but can lose effectiveness over time. Finally, our findings call attention to synergies among interventions, and in particular to the combination of regulatory interventions to halt frontier expansion with market-based approaches to incentivize nondeforestation behaviour.pt_BR
dc.format.mimetypepdfpt_BR
dc.languageengpt_BR
dc.publisherUniversidade Federal de Minas Geraispt_BR
dc.publisher.countryBrasilpt_BR
dc.publisher.departmentENG - DEPARTAMENTO DE ENGENHARIA PRODUÇÃOpt_BR
dc.publisher.initialsUFMGpt_BR
dc.relation.ispartofLand Use Policept_BR
dc.rightsAcesso Abertopt_BR
dc.subjectFrontier expansionpt_BR
dc.subjectGovernancept_BR
dc.subjectImpact evaluationpt_BR
dc.subjectCausal mechanismspt_BR
dc.subjectDiagnosticpt_BR
dc.subject.otherImpacto ambientalpt_BR
dc.subject.otherImpacto ambientalAvaliação.pt_BR
dc.subject.otherEnvironmental impact evaluationpt_BR
dc.titleHow to halt deforestation in the Amazon? a Bayesian process-tracing approachpt_BR
dc.typeArtigo de Periódicopt_BR
dc.url.externahttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837723003320pt_BR
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7943-3156pt_BR
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1133-4837pt_BR
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1117-0318pt_BR
Aparece en las colecciones:Artigo de Periódico

archivos asociados a este elemento:
archivo Descripción TamañoFormato 
How to halt deforestation in the amazon- a bayesian process-tracing approach.pdf3.73 MBAdobe PDFVisualizar/Abrir
Mostrar registro simple del elemento Visualizar estadísticas


Los elementos en el repositorio están protegidos por copyright, con todos los derechos reservados, salvo cuando es indicado lo contrario.