Um modelo de equilibrio geral com retornos crescentes de escala, mercados imperfeitos e barreiras à entrada: aplicações para setores regulados de transporte no Brasil

Abstract

The present dissertation sought to build a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model which captures some forms of market imperfections. The model brings innovations by incorporate applied elements within its theoretical structure, such as increasing returns to scale, imperfect markets, dynamic recursive mechanisms, intertemporal movement of number of firms (entries and exit) and the database structure specially detailed for passenger and freight transport in Brazil. We focused on two applications of study with the purpose to exploring some analytic potential of the constructed model. The first application examines the long turn economic impacts of tariff review policy of the Brazilian rail freight sector (end of 2012), considering different hypotheses for some sectors. The second application has the objective to discuss the long turn economic impacts of tariff change, instituted in 2013, on domestic operations of the Brazilian cabotage freight sector. The main findings of these applications indicated that, regardless the assumptions attributed to other sectors of the productive structure, tariff policies promote positive long turn effects on GDP growth, exports, and investments. In addition, the sectorial projections of such policies suggest a negative effects on rail and cabotage sector and positive effects on sectors production, which are most dependent and associated with such transportation services. The methodological innovations included into the CGE model allow an adequate characterization of these transport sectors and hence contribute to policy analysis in these sectors.