Crescimento econômico, hiato tecnológico, estrutura produtiva e taxa de câmbio real: análises teóricas e empíricas

Abstract

The main objective of this work is to analyze theoretically and empirically a class of macrodynamic models that relates the Balance of Payments Constraint Growth (BPCG) with the productive structure, the technological gap and the real exchange rate, in order to reproduce stylized facts in a North-South approach. Initially, different elements of the post-Keynesian theory (with emphasis on BPCG models), structuralism (and structuralist macroeconomics) and evolutionary theory are articulated, with special attention in the understanding of how some productive structures key features are important for the process of technological catching up and income convergence. Afterwards, a formal model is presented, in which the mismatch between supply and demand in a BPCG framework model is handled, so that the short and long term growth rate are equal to the natural growth rate. Thus, the economic growth is not limited only by the external balance (demand side), but also by the growth rate of real output, which must be equal to the potential growth rate, allowing a constant level of productive capacity utilization (supply side). Besides, in this model are integrated different features of the technological gap effects and the real exchange rate level on the industrial sector in a Kaldor-Verdoorn cumulative causation process. The model produces multiple equilibriums in the long run, where the South growth trajectories are path dependent. In another model is highlighted, in a formal way, the interrelationships between human capital, industrial spillovers and the National Innovation System level of development, affecting the knowledge stock in the less developed region (South). When the technological gap decreases there is a change in the international income elasticity ratio allowing a rise in the economic growth rate compatible with the Balance of Payment constraint. Again, the industrial sector is formalized as the main engine of economic growth, according to the Kaldorian approach. From this perspective, it is presented analytically how human capital, in a BPCG model, it is important from the standpoint of innovation activities and the productive structure, and how it influences the process of reducing the technological asymmetry in the South as well as rises the non-price competitiveness in this region. Additionally, two new potentials effects of human capital on the demand for industrial goods are presented. The first is called Stiglitz effect, which can increase the amount of diversified goods demanded. The second one is the Schumpeter-Stiglitz effect in which, with increasing stock of human capital, there is an incentive for innovation in new industrial products. Finally, several empirical tests are conducted in order to verify the main interrelations in the theoretical models. In general, the real exchange rate effect on the process of income convergence is condition to the size of the technological gap and is lagged. In addition, it was found that the manufacturing industry is important to reduce the technological gap as well as to increase the economic complexity of the less developed economies, having special effect on the per capita GDP growth rate.