Um panorama do sobrepeso e obesidade adulta: perspectivas para o conjunto das capitais estaduais até 2030

Abstract

The prevalence of overweight and obesity (O&O) is one of the biggest public health concerns of the 21st century. The proportion of O&O in adult individuals in the world will increase from 33.0% in 2005, to 57.8% in 2030. O&O has taken space in research schedules in Brazil recently and it is necessary to measure the phenomenon of it in the medium and long term in the country. Aim: Measuring, characterizing and analyzing O&O among adults between 20 and 59 years old in Brazil nowadays in order to set scenarios by the year 2030. Specific aims: (1) measuring and analyzing demographic, socioeconomic and regional variables, as well as health and life habits variables over the year 2013 according to BMI class; (2) analyzing O&O proportions tendency among adults according to gender and age group from 2007 to 2013; (3) drawing projections on O&O proportions in Brazil according to gender and age group by 2030. Methods: For the characterization analysis a descriptive analysis has been done about the variables per BMI class based on the National Health Research (PNS) from 2013. The current and future tendencies were set based on the Vigitel inquiries from the years 2007 to 2013, per gender and age group. For the projection of O&O proportions a simple linear regression has been done from the quarterly averages of researched years until 2030. The projected proportions were applied on the absolute number of the population projected by CEDEPLAR for Brazilian capitals by 2030. Results: The most vulnerable population groups have got a smaller rate of O&O individuals, however all groups have got significant rates of O&O. Brazilian tendency shows that the O&O increase in the country is almost linear per age group from the 2007 to 2013 years. The projections have shown that based on this increase there will be an 24.83% average raise of overweight adults and a 87.57% raise on obesity. If the country is successful on changing people lifestyle as well as fighting against gaining of weight it´s possible to reduce O&O in 31.51% and 63.54% by 2030, based on the current proportions of Japan. Conclusions: It is concluded that if the increasing O&O tendency for Brazil observed during the 2000´s continues, the chance of maintaining O&O stable proportions as it has been proposed by WHO is quite small. It´s necessary to set public health policies focused on the O&O reduction and that can act directly towards the population so it will be possible to remedy the current and future O&O scenarios.