Tendências regionais da transição da fecundidade brasileira corrente e de coorte ao longo do século XX

Abstract

The essence of the fertility transition is the change from intensive reproduction when many children are born, but few survive, to a new pattern where births are fewer and planned. Some articles focusing on fertility transition in Brazil indicate that this process would have begun in the second half of the 1960s, characterizing the Brazilian transition as late and fast. Despite this consensus, the objective of this dissertation was to detect “when” and “where” the fertility transition started in Brazil, estimating fertility trends in two distinct and complementary demographic perspectives: period and cohort. Three main techniques were used to estimate fertility rates. We estimate period total fertility rates by applying a technique proposed by Frias and Oliveira (1991). To introduce the discussion on cohort estimates, we use the adjusted Brass Pi/Fi series and the Parity Progression Ratios (PPR). The Pi/Fi series allows us to trace the trend of cohort fertility back to 32.5 years before the census reference date. On the other hand, PPR provides two estimates that contribute to a better understanding of the cohort fertility transition: the chance of any cohort to progress from parity i to parity i + 1, and the cohort total fertility rate. To estimate these measures, we draw data from 1940, 1950, 1970, 1980, 1991, 2000 and 2010 Brazilian Census. The data include information for Brazil (as a country total) and the ten major regions in the country. From a period perspective, the results indicate that fertility transition had been underway since the 1930s in some of Brazil’s major regions, specifically in Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Far South. The transition probably would have begun earlier in the first two regions, since its cohorts were already reducing steadily the number of children born alive since the 1920s. Disaggregating the analysis by urban and rural areas, we notice that the onset of transition had been happening since the mid-1920s in practically all Brazil’s urban areas, including parts of the Northeast, as well rural areas from Brazil’s center-south regions. As a consequence of this complex scenario, we found two phases of the fertility transition for Brazil. The first phase would have been long and slow, similar to the European fertility transition, and whose precursors were Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and the Far South. International migration, nuptiality patterns, and deliberate fertility control would have played a key role in this phase. The second phase was short and fast, in line with the fertility transition process observed in the current lagged countries across the world.