Vazios Invisíveis: O Método de Identificação da Vacância Imobiliária por Consumo Zero

Abstract

Alongside the extensive urbanisation of Brazilian cities, real estate vacancy has significantly increased. The most recently published official data confirms that the number of unoccupied houses is greater than the country’s housing deficit. On the one hand, the contradictory coexistence of a built empty stock and families in need of adequate housing has already been widely criticised; on the other hand, very little is known about these empty properties. In the face of this gap, this research introduces the Zero Consumption Real Estate Vacancy Identification Method (ZCREVIM) and applies it utilising a collection of georeferenced data on electricity consumption in Belo Horizonte. First, a prospection of studies that used unconventional data sources to analyse vacancy is discussed. Second, the study area, the gathered data and the conceptual delineation of the investigation are presented. Afterwards, a methodological script is established to locate possibly occupied and possibly empty properties through two spatial analysis models. These models guide the quantitative processing of data in absolute and relative numerical approaches. The script is applied in two scales of work: the municipal and local, in the Centro neighbourhood. We discuss a limitation from the municipal scale results: the script cannot be applied in areas that contain a significant number of illegal connections to the electricity distribution network. From the Centro results, areas of interest were selected to compose a direct sample of regions that were thoroughly investigated to verify the real estate vacancy through Google Street View. The process validated 35 of them, identifying 16 demonstrably unoccupied buildings and 23 buildings with strong evidence of inoccupation. For the remaining 32 areas, regions that should be investigated through a field survey that verifies the percentage of occupation in buildings were indicated. Finally, we conclude that the ZCREVIM contributes significantly to the spatiotemporal identification of real estate vacancy, offering the public authorities a tool to monitor the phenomenon.