A influência da estrutura demográfica sobre o consumo residencial de energia elétrica

Abstract

Brazil has been confronting a natural phenomenon of demographic transition concomitantly with the accelerated growth of residential electricity consumption. Analyzes on this relation have been carried out in other countries, while Brazil has a limited literature in this investigation. The study presents an investigation of the demographic structure in the patterns of residential electricity consumption, by regional approach, between years of 2000-2018. The study used a set of 1577 observations composed by 13 predictor variables, and estimated regional explanatory models of patterns of electricity consumption through the multiple linear regression analysis. The results, consistent with several studies published in other countries, showed a clear evidence that age structure is a relevant variable that influences electricity consumption, with different properties, significance magnitude in each region. From the regressions models selected for each region, an insignificant influence of consumption by the household numbers was observed, which regression coefficients ranging from -0,67 (**/Durb of North region) to 0,77 (Drur of Midwest region). The influence of the age structure in the North region showed that the increase of 1% of the P60a age group lead to an increases of 1.9% on consumption. In the Northeast region, only P3559 age group revealed relevant and negative impact on consumption. In the Midwest region there was a relevant and positive influence on consumption by the P014, P3559 and P60a groups. In the Southeast region, the groups of P014, P1534 and P60a showed high and positive influence as each 1% of increase lead the consumption to an increase of 2.7%. Unexpectedly, in the South region, the age groups of P3559 and P60a showed high and negative property, with the effect to slow the growth of consumption, while the group of P1534 showed relevant and positive effect. Thus, it is believed that the demographic process should be discussed on a regional scale, and this approach should be incorporated into national energy planning.