Crise econômica brasileira (2015-2016): ausência de desequilíbrio externo e endividamento público

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the reasons why the Brazilian economy did not suffer from an external crisis during its 2015-2016 economic crisis. External crisis is triggered by serious imbalances in the Balance of Payments (BP), in general resulting from the sudden and significant outflow of capital. Furthermore, the objective is to show that the counterpart of the non-occurrence of this crisis is the worsening of public debt indicators. For this, the theoretical framework of the international currency hierarchy (ICH) and the approach of post-Keynesian models that incorporate the framework of the inflation targeting regime (ITR) are used. This integration made it possible to show how changes in the international monetary and financial system (IMFS) and local economic policy decisions interact. First, from the criticism of the exchange rate crisis models, the ICH framework and the asymmetries of the IMFS are exposed and how a peripheral economy that operates under ITR operates in this context. As a result, the theoretical implications for monetary, exchange rate and public debt policy become evident. The second step is to systematize, based on evidence of reductions in default occurrences and debt restructuring, improvements in external indebtedness (including short-term ones) and a reduction in the use of credits granted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the evolution and transformation of the international scenario that began in the 1980s. Two fundamental factors are identified: the increase in international liquidity and the rise in commodity prices since the 2000s. These factors have led to the accumulation of international reserves, mainly peripheral economies. Therefore, a comparative panorama is established between the 1980s, 1990s and 2010 decade for the Brazilian economy. The reference nuclei for this exercise are: the foreign debt crisis, in 1982; the 1999 macro-institutional crisis; and the severe recession of 2015-2016. What is observed is radically different and significantly better solvency and liquidity external indicators during the 2015-2016 crisis vis-à-vis previous crises (in addition to the reduction in dollarization of external liabilities). Then, a model is developed (in line with the tradition that reconciles the post-Keynesian models with the ITR) whose aim is to understand how the economic policy of the Brazilian economy reacted to the positive external shock between 2006-2012 (period of greatest accumulation reserves). Among other factors, what the theoretical model shows is a scenario with: appreciation of the real exchange rate; increase in sterilizations performed by the Central Bank (CB); and increased public debt. Therefore, it is sought to corroborate, from some data, the theoretical results found. What is observed is a close relationship between the accumulation of reserves and the increase in the balance of repo operations (used, in this period, mainly in the performance of sterilization). Its share in the total of the General Government's Gross Debt (GGGD) and in GDP reached worrying levels and, as shown, rises significantly from the deterioration of the fiscal indicators affected by the 2015-2016 recession. It is concluded that the accumulation of reserves (positive external shock) enabled the improvement of the indicators of the external sector of the Brazilian economy although, in the short and medium term, the sterilizations performed in this period constitute an important element in the composition of public indebtedness.