Construção e avaliação a priori de curvas de danos residenciais diretos tangíveis relacionados a inundações para Minas Gerais

Abstract

The interaction between urban settlements and the effects of floods, from natural or artificial sources, is relatable and became an issue as the urban population increasedby the rural migrations of the second half of the.XXth centuryin Brazil. According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), concernsabout impacts should be increased because floods are the largest and most frequent cause of damage in the world, accounting alone for 30% of all financial damage. There are several improvement opportunities in the awarenessand detailingin those process that generate damage and this study aims to evaluate the construction and limitations of the use of flood damage curves (FDC). The approach under discussion relates hydrological and hydraulic characteristics with different types of economic consequences, thus allowing the potential damage related to the magnitude and probability of floods to occur. The quantification of damages starts from understanding the performance of submerged building fabric. However, the occurrence of severe events is unpredictable,and their observation is complex, impairingempirical surveysaposteriori of the breakdown. On the other hand, the synthesis of dataonthe mechanisms of damage and laboratory experimentation allowsus to formulate the hypotheses for synthetic a prioriof the breakdowns. Althoughthe generalizations and great commitment to obtain the sufficiently detailed database, this approach achieves the benefit of not relying on the occurrence of actual floods. On top of thatis the fact that the interpretation of different kinds of real stateallows the FDCto be transferred from different locations or fromdifferent periods, along with the autonomyon an actual flood event.The aim of this research is to build an FDCby the synthetic approach and evaluate the limitations of its use, establishinga database that can be replicated and proposinghypotheses about how the damage is watered-down on the materials. For this, categorizations of properties were developed according to their constructive characteristics, vulnerabilityand exposure analysis. The latter, dependent on hydrological and hydraulic models, is sought through an estimate of the depths caused by ahypotheticalflood in the city of Itajubá, state of Minas Gerais, where former works evaluated hydraulic parameters and damages. The FDC obtained confirmsand gaugesan increase in the proportion of damage to properties according to its submersion andallows the construction of a flood damage model akinto other curves fromthe literature.