A participação do BNDES no mercado de crédito brasileiro

Abstract

This work aims to list the main factors that influenced the fall of BNDES market share in the Brazilian credit market over the years. The state-owned bank was founded in 1952 and has stood out in granting financing since its creation. From 1995 to 2010, the bank achieved a growth of more than 2000% in its financing grant base. However, this movement was reversed in later years, since from 2011 until 2019; the BNDES presented a drop of more than 50% in its disbursed volumes. For the analysis of the research, a literary review of the history of the bank and the Brazilian credit market was shown to be necessary. Then, using the multiple linear regression method, two models were developed with variables linked to the economy and the credit market over a 12-year period, with the aim of verifying which variables influence the bank's disbursement drop. In addition, in addition to the regression models, a longitudinal analysis of credit market and BNDES data was developed. The result was proof that the equity of fixed income funds, the portfolio of free and targeted resources, the GDP growth rate and the number of accounts in brokerage firms have a negative influence on BNDES financing. As there is more investment in fixed income funds, an increase in the amounts of free and targeted funds’ portfolios, GDP growth and the number of accounts in brokerage firms, there is a tendency for lower disbursements by BNDES, less participation in the Brazilian credit market. The reverse behavior is also valid.