Cenários de desaceleração da indústria extrativa mineral e seus impactos econômicos: Implicações para o desenvolvimento regional e produtivo de Minas Gerais e de suas regiões minerárias

Abstract

Minas Gerais has been related to mining activity since its historic formation. Mining is vital to income and employ generation in several of its territories. Although, in spite of following a local development path beyond mining enclave, most of these localities presents acute economic dependence on iron ore extractive industry. This issue becomes more pressing with the sector crisis scenario, marked by Mariana and Brumadinho’ environmental disasters, the obligation of upstream tailings dams decommissioning, spread across the state, and the competition from Pará production. For this reason, this thesis employs an interregional computable general equilibrium model to assess the regional impacts from iron ore mining slowdown in Minas Gerais and to identify possible pathways to productive diversification. To modeling the iron ore extraction sector, a research effort was made collecting information from official sources and main companies’ production reports, aiming to estimate the production of ore by Minas Gerais regions. In the first simulated scenario, production shocks were implemented mimicking the prospective trend of iron ore mining sector diminution in Minas Gerais, between 2016 and 2050. The analysis showed inversion of the productive axis toward Pará's state, at the expense of Minas Gerais, and deep economic shrinking in mineral provinces, except for Conceição do Mato Dentro, that reduces the state participation in Brazilian GDP from 9,25% in 2016 to 8,83% in 2050. In the second scenario, sectorial productivity shocks were simulated with the aim of evaluate which sectors could receive incentives in order to mitigating the negative impacts of the shutting down of Minas Gerais mining sector. This simulation suggested, in each region, the productive activities with the most potential of generating employ and income, emphasizing industrial sectors, complex services, besides agriculture, livestock and tourism.