Qualidade do ar na Região Metropolitana de Belo Horizonte : análise de tendência temporal e perspectivas futuras

Abstract

Since the transport sector became one of the leading emitters of air pollutants, the most historically outstanding programs for reducing emissions in this category are the Programa de Controle da Poluição do Ar por Veículos Automotores (PROCONVE, Program for the Control of Air Pollution Emissions by Motor Vehicles) and the Programa de Controle da Poluição Atmosférica por Motociclos e Veículos Similares – (PROMOT, Program for the Control of Emissions by Motorcycles). Facing the lack of studies about air quality in the Metropolitan Area of Belo Horizonte (MABH), which is the third most populous Brazilian metropolitan area, this Master’s dissertation aimed to investigate the trend of air pollutants concentrations in the air of MABH between 1995 and 2021 and the effectiveness of control policies, using data of pollutants 〖MP〗_10, 〖MP〗_2,5, 〖NO〗_2, O_3, 〖SO〗_2 e CO from the MABH’s air quality monitoring network. The methodology consisted in (i) verification of the statistical representativity of the network monitoring; (ii) checking the trend and the characterization of the air quality MABH following the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines and interim targets; (iii) estimating the vehicles running by category and type of fuel, also trend assessment; and (iv) investigate the effectiveness of the implementation of the PROCONVE and PROMOT phases to improve air quality by analyzing the evolution of the vehicle fleet and air quality. The Mann-Kendall test was applied and performed at the 0.05 significance level to detect the trends in air pollution and in vehicle running. The results showed a trend of stability in the concentrations of air pollutants in the MABH, with no prospect of improvement or worsening. Although the vehicles running and the fuel consumption have increased over the years, this increase has not had direct perceptible effects of worsening air quality, which suggests that the vehicular intensification has been partially offset by the decrease in emitted concentrations of pollutants by the implementation of control policies, as PROCONVE and PROMOT. However, the historical characterization in the MABH exposed the challenge of the region in ensuring good air quality that really provides human health, with concentrations that remained at levels higher than WHO guidelines. Furthermore, the results reinforced the importance of the industrial sector for air pollution in MABH and exposed the need for improvement in air quality management, for this purpose, it is essential to reverse the current dismantling scenario of the public environmental agencies.