Mercado de trabalho em crise: uma análise da resiliência do emprego formal do estado de Minas Gerais

Abstract

This thesis aims to analyze the impact of the national economic crisis of the years 2015/2016 on formal employment in the State of Minas Gerais. The analysis of impact at the worker´s level is based on the theoretical framework of economic resilience and the resilience of the labor market. The empirical approach seeks to understand how adverse shocks have impacted the dynamics of employment in Minas Gerais, a State often considered as a summary of the country in the regional economics literature. The first chapter of this thesis conceptually presents the dynamics between regional economic and labor market resilience, indicating a theoretical framework that allows analyzing how regional labor markets behave in periods of shock. The second chapter of the thesis has focused on the vulnerability of the labor market, measured through the probability of job loss by workers in the formal labor market in Minas Gerais in 2015 and 2016, and their determinants estimated by a Probit modeling. The results found in this chapter show that male, young, less educated and less experienced workers, were the most vulnerable to the studied shock. It was also observed in this chapter that those workers who had temporary contracts, who worked in microenterprises that opted for the Simples Nacional, in the sectors of the transformation industry and civil construction and who were in the regions of greater economic dynamism of the State were more vulnerable to the impacts of the crisis studied. In the third chapter, the economic resilience was approached as the laid off worker's return to formal employment in the period from 2015 to 2017, based on the econometric model of Survival Analysis. The results show the difficulty of returning to work in the period studied. It was verified that women, less educated and less experienced workers, had greater difficulties in returning to formal employment in the years 2015 to 2017. It can also be observed that the degree of regional relatedness between worker´s previous occupation and the economic activity sector of and the local economic structure contributes to a faster return to the labor market in the period studied. The economic complexity was significant in explaining the return to employment in the period and was associated with the dynamics of the national economy in the studied period. From the regional point of view, it was verified that the worker who lost his job and was in the Jequitinhonha mesoregion, which is associated with low rates of economic development in the State of Minas Gerais, took longer to return to formal employment in the period. Therefore, by studying employment from an individual level, this research contributes for the understanding the Brazilian labor market and complements the existing aggregated analyses. The use of the Annual Social Information List (RAIS-MTP), based on the identification of individuals by CPF, made it possible to calculate the time the worker was out of the formal sector during the studied period, allowed the application of the econometric method of survival, and created alternatives for the study of resilience in Brazil. Another point highlighted in this thesis is the need for more studies that address the impact of crises on regional economic inequalities in the State. In this thesis, it could be seen that crises tend to accentuate marked inequalities in the Brazilian labor market, as can be seen in the case of gender and regional inequalities.