O impacto econômico da cobrança pelo uso da água para financiamento em infraestrutura verde: uma proposta de integração da governança de água e floresta

Abstract

Water availability in quality and quantity in watersheds results from complex ecological functions, known as ecosystem services of climate and hydrological regulation. Crucial for social and economic organization, water is consumed as primary factor, directly or indirectly, in the production process of most products. In Brazil, the demand for water use is concentrated in more than 75% in the agricultural sector, determined by the global demand for agricultural commodities, which, in turn, is characterized by the export of embodied water in the products, which interferes in local water balance. Although Brazil is largely endowed with surface and groundwater availability, several regions is increasingly facing droughts events, affecting human and economic activities water supply. Two main factors directly interfere in the local water balance, forest conversion and the degradation of watersheds, which affects water availability, and the increased demand for water use, which intensifies the water withdrawal. Considering the relevance of ecosystem services in regulating the hydrological flow, this thesis is based on the hypothesis of the importance of green infrastructure and suggests the integration of water and forest governance instruments to guarantee water security. Both instruments considered are, the compliance with the Permanent Preservation Areas (APP) established by the Protection of Native Vegetation Law (LPVN) and the water charge determined by the National Water Resources Policy (PNRH) which attribute economic value to water, incentives rational use and enable the internalization of the cost of watersheds management. Due to the lack of native vegetation in APPs in municipalities with water restrictions and the insufficient application of water charge, the integration of these instruments is suggested. To this end, this thesis develops a national and recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model for 86 sectors, with the inclusion of water as a primary factor and its respective cost. The model, called Charge for Water and Watershed Conservation - ConAgua, simulate the economic impacts resulting from a policy of increasing water charges on the agricultural sector to obtain resources for investment in green infrastructure. The results indicate small structural adjustments with a decline in GDP and sectoral production, compared to the increase in potential revenue. The most affected production would be on agricultural products, in greater proportions in the production of coffee, rice, wheat and other cereals, as well as on the food industry and transformation industry, such as the production of fertilizers, fertilizers and agricultural defensives. Exports of agricultural products would also be affected. Even if small adjustments occur, there would be a significant reduction in water consumption and an increase in water charge revenue, which would contribute to more investment in green infrastructure in watersheds and greater water security.