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Type:	Artigo de Periódico
Title:	Geospatial modeling of microcephaly and zika virus spread patterns in Brazil
Authors:	Pedro Amaral Lucas Resende de Carvalho Thiago Augusto Hernandes Rocha Núbia Cristina da Silva João Ricardo Nickenig Vissoci
Abstract:	Microcephaly and Zika Virus infection (ZIKV) were declared Public Health Emergencies of International Concern by the World Health Organization in 2016. Brazil was considered the epicenter of the outbreak. However, the occurrence of both ZIKV and microcephaly in Brazil was not evenly distributed across the country. To better understand this phenomenon, we investigate regional characteristics at the municipal level that can be associated with the incidence of microcephaly, our response variable, and its relationship with ZIKV and other predictors. All epidemiological data in this study was provided by the Ministry of Health official database (DATASUS). Microcephaly was only confirmed after birth and the diagnostic was made regardless of the mother’s ZIKV status. Using exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial autoregressive Tobit models, our results show that microcephaly incidence is significantly, at 95% confidence level, related not only to ZIKV, but also to access to primary care, population size, gross national product, mobility and environmental attributes of the municipalities. There is also a significant spatial autocorrelation of the dependent variable. The results indicate that municipalities that show a high incidence of microcephaly tend to be clustered in space and that incidence of microcephaly varies considerably across regions when correlated only with ZIKV, i.e. that ZIKV alone cannot explain the differences in microcephaly across regions and their correlation is mediated by regional attributes.
Subject:	Zika Virus Microcefalia
language:	eng
metadata.dc.publisher.country:	Brasil
Publisher:	Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Publisher Initials:	UFMG
metadata.dc.publisher.department:	FCE - DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIAS ECONÔMICAS
Rights:	Acesso Aberto
metadata.dc.identifier.doi:	https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0222668
URI:	http://hdl.handle.net/1843/59076
Issue Date:	2019
metadata.dc.url.externa:	https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0222668
metadata.dc.relation.ispartof:	PLOS ONE
Appears in Collections:	Artigo de Periódico

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