Mobilidade educacional e fecundidade: uma análise pautada no status socioeconômico de origem

Abstract

Concurrently with an apparent convergence process in fertility by socioeconomic groups, a widespread educational expansion has been observed in Latin America since the last decades of the 20th century. In this context, adding another variable to the social class of origin - education - social class of destination triangle, raises questions about the transformation or maintenance of reproductive intentions and behavior among women who have experienced upward educational mobility. Additionally, there are concerns about the role of fertility and reproductive intentions as selective characteristics for entering and completing a level of education, especially higher education. Given this scenario, the present study aims to analyze how and to what extent the socioeconomic status of origin is related to women's fertility given the recent expansion of higher education in Brazil. Specifically, through descriptive analyses, we intend to examine possible patterns of fertility and future expectations related to the labor market and education among women aged 15 to 29, based on their parents' educational attainment. Furthermore, using Poisson regressions, we sought to explore the relationship between socioeconomic status of origin and childbirth among women aged 25 to 34, and to identify, through multilevel Poisson regressions, potential heterogeneities in the relationship between education and childbirth among these women. Additionally, employing a nonlinear multivariate decomposition, we aimed to assess the extent to which changes in the average childbirth rate among high school and college-educated women between the years 1996 and 2014 are due to differences in the composition of these groups in terms of individuals' innate characteristics, such as race, and socioeconomic characteristics of origin. We used data from the School to Work Transition Survey and the 1996 and 2014 PNADs. A strong correlation was found between parental education and women own educational and occupational aspirations, which can be explained through the lens of intergenerational transmission literature, considering mechanisms such as childhood socialization. Moreover, a significant correlation between childbirth and socioeconomic status of origin was observed. However, the results suggest that much of this correlation is mediated by intergenerational transmission of education and socioeconomic status, which may be correlated with horizontal educational stratification at this level of education. This stratification would lead individuals from different social backgrounds to access courses with different financial returns, consequently facing different costs and having different levels of resources available for motherhood. Lastly, although the percentage of first-generation female university students has remained relatively constant in the analyzed periods and samples, the results suggest that changes in the profile of entrants into higher and secondary education have acted to attenuate the pattern of decline in the average childbirth rate among these groups. These finding highlights that, although education is widely used as a variable to measure fertility levels by socioeconomic status, differences in the composition of educational groups may limit comparisons between different periods. The analyzes carried out in the thesis encourage discussion about the equalizing power of schooling, especially higher education, regarding socioeconomic characteristics and reproductive patterns.