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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/64417
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dc.creatorPaulo Henrique Ribeiro Amaralpt_BR
dc.creatorLídia Maria de Andradept_BR
dc.creatorFlávio Guimarães da Fonsecapt_BR
dc.creatorJuan Carlos González Pérezpt_BR
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-21T17:30:57Z-
dc.date.available2024-02-21T17:30:57Z-
dc.date.issued2020-
dc.citation.volume68pt_BR
dc.citation.issue4pt_BR
dc.citation.spage2521pt_BR
dc.citation.epage2530pt_BR
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.13922pt_BR
dc.identifier.issn1865-1682pt_BR
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1843/64417-
dc.description.resumoBy analysing the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, we showed the importance of considering the sub-notification not only of deaths but also of infected cases. It was shown that the largely used criteria of a historical all-deaths baseline are not approachable in this case, where most of the deaths are associated with causes that should decrease due to social distancing and reduction of economic activities. A quite simple and intuitive model based on the Gompertz function was applied to estimate excess deaths and excess of infected cases. It fits well the data and predicts the evolution of the epidemic adequately. Based on these analyses, an excess of 21.638 deaths and 557.216 infected cases is predicted until the end of 2020, with an upper bound of the case fatality rate of around 2.4% and a prevalence of 2.6%. The geographical distribution of cases and deaths and its ethnic correlation are also presented. This study points out the necessity of governmental and private organizations working together to improve public awareness and stimulate social distancing to curb the viral infection, especially in critical places with high poverty.pt_BR
dc.description.sponsorshipCNPq - Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológicopt_BR
dc.description.sponsorshipFAPEMIG - Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Geraispt_BR
dc.description.sponsorshipCAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superiorpt_BR
dc.languageengpt_BR
dc.publisherUniversidade Federal de Minas Geraispt_BR
dc.publisher.countryBrasilpt_BR
dc.publisher.departmentICB - DEPARTAMENTO DE MICROBIOLOGIApt_BR
dc.publisher.departmentICX - DEPARTAMENTO DE FÍSICApt_BR
dc.publisher.initialsUFMGpt_BR
dc.relation.ispartofTransboundary and Emerging Diseases-
dc.rightsAcesso Restritopt_BR
dc.subjectCOVID-19pt_BR
dc.subjectEthnic distributionpt_BR
dc.subjectGompertz functionpt_BR
dc.subjectMinas Geraispt_BR
dc.subjectSub-notificationpt_BR
dc.subject.otherCOVID-19 (Doença)pt_BR
dc.subject.otherMinas Geraispt_BR
dc.titleImpact of COVID-19 in Minas Gerais, Brazil: excess deaths, sub-notified cases, geographic and ethnic distributionpt_BR
dc.typeArtigo de Periódicopt_BR
dc.url.externahttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/tbed.13922pt_BR
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0799-4143pt_BR
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2594-4617pt_BR
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1416-8694pt_BR
dc.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9155-1657pt_BR
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