A sobreeducação entre os jovens com ensino superior de Minas Gerais entre 2012 e 2019: uma análise da persistência e dos determinantes da saída da condição

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the duration of overeducation and the determinants of exiting this condition among individuals aged 25 to 34 years, with a completed higher education degree and who participate in the formal labor market of Minas Gerais, Brazil, between 2012 and 2019. For this purpose, longitudinal data from the Annual Social Information Report (RAIS) and the Brazilian Classification of Occupations (CBO) were used. The occurrence of overeducation was analyzed using the Job Analysis methodology, while the duration of overeducation and the determinants of exiting job mismatch were investigated using survival analysis models, specifically the Kaplan Meier model and the Cox model with time-dependent covariates. The results revealed persistent overeducation among young graduates in Minas Gerais, with only 32.1% of initially overeducated individuals managing to leave this condition over the eight years of observation. The duration of overeducation was also found to be sensitive to individual and occupational characteristics of the workers. Regarding the determinants of exiting overeducation, it was observed that women, white people, public sector workers, workers in small, medium and large firms, residents of the metropolitan region of Belo Horizonte, those in their first job, and individuals aged 25-29 have, on average, a higher probability of transitioning to a job compatible with their educational level. In contrast, it was found that men, non-white people, employees in non-public sectors, non-residents of the Belo Horizonte metropolitan area, those with previous work experience, and those aged 30-34 have a lower probability of securing a job that matches their respective educational degree. The results contribute to a better understanding of the job market insertion inequalities among highly educated young people and to identifying the factors associated with the persistence in an inadequate and potentially inefficient situation for these actors in the job market.