Voto de classe no Brasil: índices e condicionantes nas eleições presidenciais (1994 - 2022)

Abstract

This paper analyzes class voting in the Brazilian presidential elections during the period 19942022. To accomplish this, we used data from public opinion polls produced by the Datafolha Institute during the first round election campaigns in that period. In addition to observing variations in class voting over the series, the aim was to investigate the fit of commonly indexes used in the literature for Brazilian data. In particular, two indexes were tested – the Kappa and Lambda index. In addition, we sought to evaluate different operationalizations of the voting intention variable (in "traditional" and "total" versions), the data used to calculate the indices (in absolute or relative versions), as well as the specification of the logistic regression models on which they are based (using, or not, control variables and fixed effects for structural alignment). It was found that the relative version of the Lambda index was the one best fitted to the data. From this, it was possible to show that, regardless of the operationalizations and models used, the magnitude of class voting in Brazil, after a higher level at the start of the series in 1994, went into decline in 1998 and 2002; from 2006 onwards, there was a rise in the salience of this phenomenon, which continued until the end of the series. Finally, among the analyzed class groups, the class voting tended to be lower among the Working Class (especially in the 2006-2014 period) and higher among Entrepreneurs and Professionals (especially in the last year of the series). By analyzing class voting in Brazil, this work has contributed to filling a gap in Brazilian electoral studies by working on a fundamental issue commonly addressed in other academic environments.