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http://hdl.handle.net/1843/68191| Type: | Artigo de Periódico |
| Title: | Correlations between web searches and covid-19 epidemiological indicators in Brazil |
| Authors: | Marcelo Sartori Locatelli Anne Isabelle Rodrigues de Carvalho Leandro M. V. Souza Gabriela P. F. Paixão Elisa França Chaves Guilherme Bezerra Dos Santos Rafael Vinícius dos Santos Amanda Cupertino de Freitas Matheus G. Flores Rachel F. Biezuner Rodolfo Lins Cardoso Evandro Landulfo Teixeira Paradela Cunha Rodrigo Machado Fonseca Ana Paula Couto da Silva Wagner Meira Jr Janaína Guiginski Ramon A. S. Franco Tereza Bernardes Pedro Loures Alzamora Daniel Victor F. da Silva Marcelo Augusto s Ganem Thiago H. M. Santos |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 rapidly spread across the world in an unprecedented outbreak with a massive number of infected and fatalities. The pandemic was heavily discussed and searched on the internet, which generated big amounts of data related to it. This led to the possibility of attempting to forecast coronavirus indicators using the internet data. For this study, Google Trends statistics for 124 selected search terms related to pandemic were used in an attempt to find which keywords had the best Spearman correlations with a lag, as well as a forecasting model. It was found that keywords related to coronavirus testing among some others, such as “I have contracted covid”, had high correlations (≥0.7) with few weeks of lag (≤4 weeks). Besides that, the ARIMAX model using those keywords had promising results in predicting the increase or decrease of epidemiological indicators, although it was not able to predict their exact values. Thus, we found that Google Trends data may be useful for predicting outbreaks of coronavirus a few weeks before they happen, and may be used as an auxiliary tool in monitoring and forecasting the disease in Brazil. |
| Subject: | Saúde - Indicadores |
| language: | eng |
| metadata.dc.publisher.country: | Brasil |
| Publisher: | Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais |
| Publisher Initials: | UFMG |
| metadata.dc.publisher.department: | FALE - FACULDADE DE LETRAS |
| Rights: | Acesso Aberto |
| metadata.dc.identifier.doi: | 10.1590/1678-4324-2022210648 |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/1843/68191 |
| Issue Date: | 2022 |
| metadata.dc.url.externa: | http://www.scielo.br/j/babt/a/FN9Rwk4DpGDCRmPg8V9tkgL/?lang=endoi:10.1590/1678-4324-2022210648 |
| metadata.dc.relation.ispartof: | Brazilian Archives of Biology and Technology |
| Appears in Collections: | Artigo de Periódico |
Files in This Item:
| File | Description | Size | Format | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correlations between Web Searches and COVID-19 Epidemiological Indicators in Brazil.pdf | 850.69 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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