O impacto das incertezas econômicas no desempenho do setor bancário brasileiro nas últimas duas décadas

Abstract

This study analyzed the impact of economic uncertainties on the performance of Brazilian banking institutions over the last two decades. Two technical approaches were used to evaluate banking performance: the Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) and Efficient-Structure (ES) theory and internal and external determinants. The first approach involved the SCP theory and ES, which analyze the relationship between market structure and company performance. The second approach considered the internal determinants of performance, representing the aspects of a bank influenced by internal management decisions, such as capital, risk levels, liquidity, size and operating costs. External determinants were also considered, covering sectoral (market concentration) and macroeconomic (business cycle, inflation, GDP) characteristics. Data from 57 banking financial institutions, published by BACEN, of the Consolidated Banking B1 type, were analyzed from 2000 to 2021. Using evaluation methodologies such as CAMELS and statistical methods such as Wilcoxon, factor analysis and regression. Banking performance indicators from Brazilian literature were initially classified (Assaf, 2012; Febraban, 1990; Austin Asis apud Matias, 1999), 55 economic-financial indicators were selected, evaluated for the difference in averages, and then their factors were extracted through factor analysis calculation. The results revealed the extraction of 14 factors, explaining bank performances. These performances were dependent variables of the panel data regression model to evaluate the explanation of internal and external determinants, economic uncertainty index and Basel index. It was found that the performance of financial institutions, measured by the C "capital" factor 3 matrices, was strongly associated with the immobilization indicator, application of assets over short and long-term resources and PL growth rate. Factor S "risk" 14 was strongly associated with the financial dependence indicator and sensitivity index, indicating an improvement in periods of economic uncertainty compared to periods without uncertainty, being significantly positive for the three periods of uncertainty studied. This suggests that financial institutions are adopting effective strategies to manage their assets, reduce their level of risk and increase their resilience in the face of unpredictable economic events. Overall, the study identified relationships between the factors assessed, internal and external determinants, as well as Basel indices and economic uncertainty. Recognizing that these relationships can be partially understood, since each factor acts differently for the explanatory variables, the continuous need for in-depth analyzes is highlighted to fully understand the mechanisms underlying bank performance in its various dimensions. It is concluded that the findings offer valuable insights into how these crisis-sensitive banking institutions deal with the impact of these challenging economic uncertainties. The study contributed to the literature and the market, offering an evaluation of indicators that measure banking performance and the impact that economic uncertainties caused in the Brazilian banking sector, measuring the result that the crises and recessions of the first decade of the new millennium caused and which internal and external determinants of the sector were most affected and need more attention, thus adding value to investors and shareholders who study this market.