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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/72140
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dc.creatorIvan Luiz Fiorini de Magalhãespt_BR
dc.creatorAdalberto José Dos Santospt_BR
dc.creatorMartin J. Ramírezpt_BR
dc.date.accessioned2024-07-30T21:29:39Z-
dc.date.available2024-07-30T21:29:39Z-
dc.date.issued2021-08-31-
dc.citation.volume13pt_BR
dc.citation.issue9pt_BR
dc.citation.spage1pt_BR
dc.citation.epage23pt_BR
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/d13090418pt_BR
dc.identifier.issn1424-2818pt_BR
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1843/72140-
dc.description.resumoEvent-based biogeographic methods, such as dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis, have become increasingly popular for attempting to reconstruct the biogeographic history of organisms. Such methods employ distributional data of sampled species and a dated phylogenetic tree to estimate ancestral distribution ranges. Because the input tree is often a single consensus tree, uncertainty in topology and age estimates are rarely accounted for, even when they may affect the outcome of biogeographic estimates. Even when such uncertainties are taken into account for estimates of ancestral ranges, they are usually ignored when researchers compare competing biogeographic hypotheses. We explore the effect of incorporating this uncertainty in a biogeographic analysis of the 21 species of sand spiders (Sicariidae: Sicarius) from Neotropical xeric biomes, based on a total-evidence phylogeny including a complete sampling of the genus. Using a custom R script, we account for uncertainty in ages and topology by estimating ancestral ranges over a sample of trees from the posterior distribution of a Bayesian analysis, and for uncertainty in biogeographic estimates by using stochastic maps. This approach allows for counting biogeographic events such as dispersal among areas, counting lineages through time per area, and testing biogeographic hypotheses, while not overestimating the confidence in a single topology. Including uncertainty in ages indicates that Sicarius dispersed to the Galapagos Islands when the archipelago was formed by paleo-islands that are now submerged; model comparison strongly favors a scenario where dispersal took place before the current islands emerged. We also investigated past connections among currently disjunct Neotropical dry forests; failing to account for topological uncertainty underestimates possible connections among the Caatinga and Andean dry forests in favor of connections among Caatinga and Caribbean + Mesoamerican dry forests. Additionally, we find that biogeographic models including a founder-event speciation parameter (“+J”) are more prone to suffer from the overconfidence effects of estimating ancestral ranges using a single topology. This effect is alleviated by incorporating topological and age uncertainty while estimating stochastic maps, increasing the similarity in the inference of biogeographic events between models with or without a founder-event speciation parameter. We argue that incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty in biogeographic hypothesis-testing is valuable and should be a commonplace approach in the presence of rogue taxa or wide confidence intervals in age estimates, and especially when using models including founder-event speciation.pt_BR
dc.description.sponsorshipCNPq - Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológicopt_BR
dc.description.sponsorshipFAPEMIG - Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Geraispt_BR
dc.description.sponsorshipFAPESP - Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulopt_BR
dc.description.sponsorshipOutra Agênciapt_BR
dc.format.mimetypepdfpt_BR
dc.languageengpt_BR
dc.publisherUniversidade Federal de Minas Geraispt_BR
dc.publisher.countryBrasilpt_BR
dc.publisher.departmentICB - DEPARTAMENTO DE ZOOLOGIApt_BR
dc.publisher.initialsUFMGpt_BR
dc.relation.ispartofDiversitypt_BR
dc.rightsAcesso Abertopt_BR
dc.subject.otherAranhapt_BR
dc.subject.otherCaatingapt_BR
dc.subject.otherFlorestas tropicaispt_BR
dc.subject.otherFilogeniapt_BR
dc.titleIncorporating topological and age uncertainty into event-based biogeography of sand spiders supports paleo-islands in galapagos and ancient connections among neotropical dry forestspt_BR
dc.typeArtigo de Periódicopt_BR
dc.url.externahttps://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/13/9/418pt_BR
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Incorporating Topological and Age Uncertainty into Event-Based Biogeography of Sand Spiders Supports Paleo-Islands in Galapagos and Ancient Connections among Neotropical Dry Forests.pdf7.98 MBAdobe PDFView/Open
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