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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1843/77319
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dc.creatorDaniel Meira Arrudapt_BR
dc.creatorCarlos Ernesto Gonçalves Reynaud Schaeferpt_BR
dc.creatorRubia Santos Fonsecapt_BR
dc.creatorElpídio Inácio Fernandes Filhopt_BR
dc.creatorGustavo Vieira Velosopt_BR
dc.creatorLucas de Carvalho Gomespt_BR
dc.creatorFábio Soares de Oliveirapt_BR
dc.creatorGuilherme Resende Corrêapt_BR
dc.creatorMário Marcos do Espírito Santopt_BR
dc.creatorGuilherme de Castro Oliveirapt_BR
dc.creatorRicardo Ribeiro de Castro Solarpt_BR
dc.date.accessioned2024-10-08T21:28:44Z-
dc.date.available2024-10-08T21:28:44Z-
dc.date.issued2023-05-23-
dc.citation.volume49pt_BR
dc.citation.issue1pt_BR
dc.citation.spagee13369pt_BR
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1111/aec.13369pt_BR
dc.identifier.issn1442-9993pt_BR
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1843/77319-
dc.description.resumoChanges in vegetation cover due to increasing frequencies of extreme climate events and anthropogenic pressure are already underway; so, predicting the impacts of the near-future climate will be essential for developing mitigation strategies. We modelled the responses of Brazilian biomes to a future scenario (2070) of steady increases in atmospheric CO2 levels, adding soil data to better represent the multidimensional space of the environmental suitability of each biome. We also assessed the effects of changes in environmental suitability on the Brazilian network of protected areas and projected those effects on 1 km resolution maps. The area predicted to be affected by future climate change in Brazil and the consequent loss of suitable habitat surface is 2.59 Mkm2 – larger than the combined areas of Central America and Mexico – leading the current vegetation to a progressive replacement. We project major changes in the vegetation of the Amazon basin, with the replacement of rainforest by dryer vegetation in the southern and eastern regions of that basin, and the opening of a dry corridor in Pará State. We also project an expansion of 41% of the current caatinga cover in the Brazilian semiarid region, with large losses of suitable habitat surface of the current deciduous forest. Approximately, 37% of the coverage of protected areas in Brazil will be affected – with greater damage to indigenous lands. The speed of current environmental change is now unprecedented for the post-glacial era, and will almost certainly lead to increased rates of extinction and the collapse of transition ecosystems. We propose the urgent creation of protected areas in regions designed without significant impacts, but contiguous to those that will be more seriously affected by climate change. Those areas will act as refugia preserving biodiversity, ecosystem services, and the cultural heritages of traditional populations.pt_BR
dc.description.sponsorshipCAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superiorpt_BR
dc.languageengpt_BR
dc.publisherUniversidade Federal de Minas Geraispt_BR
dc.publisher.countryBrasilpt_BR
dc.publisher.departmentICA - INSTITUTO DE CIÊNCIAS AGRÁRIASpt_BR
dc.publisher.departmentIGC - DEPARTAMENTO DE GEOGRAFIApt_BR
dc.publisher.initialsUFMGpt_BR
dc.relation.ispartofAustral Ecology-
dc.rightsAcesso Restritopt_BR
dc.subject.otherBiomaspt_BR
dc.subject.otherMudanças climáticaspt_BR
dc.subject.otherEcossistemas em extinçãopt_BR
dc.subject.otherRecuperação ecológicapt_BR
dc.subject.otherVegetação e climapt_BR
dc.subject.otherReservas indígenaspt_BR
dc.subject.otherFlorestas tropicais - Conservaçãopt_BR
dc.titleAmazonian vegetation types and indigenous lands threatened by upcoming climate change: forecast impact for Brazilian biomespt_BR
dc.typeArtigo de Periódicopt_BR
dc.url.externahttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/aec.13369pt_BR
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