Peste suína africana: caracterização de riscos para introdução da doença no Brasil

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most important diseases affecting pigs, and this study aimed to describe the risk profile of the disease’s introduction into Brazil, based on the most likely pathways according to the FAO, with a focus on the informal importation of animal origin products (AOP) and fomites. The first chapter aimed to explore the seasonality of disease outbreaks and discuss the main determining factors for its occurrence on each continent. In Europe, overall seasonality was in the summer and autumn. Seasonality specific to wild boar was more pronounced in winter and summer, while for domestic pigs, it was more evident in summer. In Asia, seasonality was most pronounced in February and March. The seasonality in Europe may be related to increased human activity during these periods and wild boar behavior. In Asia, seasonality coincides with the Chinese New Year, likely due to increased movement of people and by-products in the country. Recent notifications in 2021 and 2022 in the Caribbean region have raised concerns across the Americas. The second chapter aimed to describe AOP seizures carried out by Vigiagro, including the traveler's country of origin, type of product, quantity, and the Brazilian state (UF) where the seizure occurred. The results showed that significant amounts of AOP are seized from countries that have recently reported ASF outbreaks. In 2023, the largest quantity of products from these countries came from China, Italy, and Germany. The third chapter aimed to outline the profile of immigrant entries into Brazil using data from the International Traffic System (STI) and the National Civil Aviation Agency (ANAC). The results show differences in the frequencies and proportions between the general analysis and the analysis focused on countries with ASF outbreaks. In the ASF-focused analysis, the proportion of Europeans entering Brazil via air travel (83.71%) was higher than in the general analysis (64.27%). In the case of Asia, the proportion of maritime entries was higher in the ASF analysis (59.48%) than in the general analysis (27.34%), and the proportion of fluvial entries (8.39%) was also higher than in the general analysis (4%). The joint seasonality analysis of flights to Brazil and ASF outbreaks worldwide demonstrated a moderate and significant correlation. The results contribute to the development of risk-based surveillance by identifying locations and times of the year when surveillance activities should be intensified. Finally, the fourth chapter aimed to describe the profile of immigrants in the Brazilian formal labor market, focusing on workers from countries with recent ASF notifications and occupations considered to pose a higher risk due to increased chances of contact with susceptible animals. The results show that the states receiving the highest number of these workers are in the southern region, Brazil's main swine production hub. In addition to strengthening biosecurity measures on farms, sanitary education for immigrant workers who have contact with animals is also highlighted, emphasizing the issues surrounding the informal importation of AOP and the associated sanitary risks.