Médicos em Minas Gerais: projeções para o período 2010-2020

Abstract

The future availability of physicians in Minas Gerais is important for the public-policy planners, managers and employers of these workers, and it is relevant to the state that presents a scenario of changes defined by three situations justified by the need for the information: (i) The fast ageing of the population, (ii) the expansion and strengthening of the SUS, (iii) the fast growth of medical schools. Thus the goal of this dissertation is estimating the number of physicians, in Minas Gerais, for the period 2010-2020.From the SIEM/ CRM-MG (Information System for Medical Entities) and other secondary datas the stock of physicians in 2005 was estimated, considering the flow of entry and exit of activity, since the supply of places to courses of the medicine until the issue of registration by CRM-MG. Demographic methods indirect helped validate the SIEM and may conclude that this type of statistical has valuable potential for demographic analysis.The projection of physicians by sex and age was drawn up using as reference, the method of Demographic components and model formulated by Goic (1999). The analysis of the components can be designed scenarios that provide substantial subsidy to understand the future evolution of the number and composition by gender and age of physicians. Thus, if the expansion of medical schools continue in the same way of the last 10 years, Minas Gerais may have more than 20 physicians for every 10,000 inhabitants in 2020, which means an increase of around 60% in the number of professionals in relation to base year of projection, 2005. Now remains assess what means to society have this human capital.