Análise de sobrevivência e modelos hierárquicos logísticos longitudinais: uma aplicação à análise da trajetória escolar (4ª a 8ª série - ensino fundamental)

Abstract

There is agreement that currently, the greatest problems that the Brazilian educational system faces are dropouts and grade repeats, although there is also a gap in access to schools. In this sense, the main goal of this dissertation is to identify and analyze the determinants of the probability of occurrence of the first repeating grade or dropout, between 4th and 8th grades of what is called, fundamental school. The other objective is to estimate survival curves of students to these events, and also of initial repeating grade or initial dropout. Two methods were utilized: hierarchical logistic models and survival analysis. The development of this dissertation is based upon the schooling trajectories of a cohort of students that were enrolled in 4th grade in 1999, in schools located in urban areas of micro-regions located in certain states of the North, Northeast, Central-west region of Brazil. These students were followed until 2003, year in which they should have completed the 8th grade. It is possible to infer that the two methods of analysis are complementary and that their results are compatible. The survival analysis shows that the probability of survival of the student to the first repeating grade between 4th and 8th grade is much inferior to the probability of survival to dropout. On the other hand, the estimated models show that the mean probability of repeating a grade is much higher than the mean probability of dropout, for a typical school. Both methods make evident that the past performance in school expressively impacts the present trajectory of the student, and the worst results were observed for students enrolled in schools of the Northeast region. The hierarchical analysis was able to show that in schools with smaller proportions of grade repeats; the relationship between occurrence of repeating grade and the 5th grade is more evident. It is possible to associate lower event occurrence to the best schools (with more physical and human resources). The results show that the even in those schools, repeating grades is more pronounced in 5th grade, which is the grade that marks the transitions between the methods of curricular organization. It is noticed that the students are heavily affected by changes in the curriculum that occur between 4th and 5th grade. A revision in the pedagogical project of each school is suggested, so as to minimize the effect of such transition on the school performance. Conversely, the evidence shows that the probability of dropout increases in the last grades of the fundamental school. As in these grades the student is at a relatively older age, it is possible to attribute dropping out of school to the entrance in the job market. In that case, it is important that public policies target adherence to school. More importantly, adherence given being approved in the grade.