Projeção de domicílios por modelo multi-estado e aplicação para previsão da frota de automóveis em Belo Horizonte

Abstract

Since the household is a place used by one or more people to live together, it is influenced by transformations that occur in the population and can be related to economical and cultural values of society referring to familial life and also to demographic components: fertility, mortality and migration.The objective of this thesis was to project the number and composition of households of Belo Horizonte by household size and marital status and age of reference person, due to changes in the demographic variables. It was used a multidimensional model developed by Yi (1991) that considers the interdependence between demographic events, because it analyzes the familial dynamic and the demographic processes that occur into the familial context. The data of demographic census of 1991 and 2000 and of PNADs of 2004 and 2005 were used to estimate the rates of marital transitions and leaving parental home.Considering the hypotheses that the mortality will reduce, the total fertility rate will maintain 1,49 children by woman and the number of net-migrants will be equal zero after 2010, the population of Belo Horizonte will rise 3,1%; while the number of households will rise 37,8% between 2000 and 2050.In 2050, Belo Horizonte will have a big proportion of married people, aged 65 or older, probably due to the lower mortality rates that can be contributing to the old couples to live together for a long time. From 2000 until 2050, the number of households of size one will rise from 10,9% to 20,7% and the households of size two from 16,2% to 34,2%; while the proportion of households of size three will be remained practically constant (23%), and decreasing the proportion concerning the biggest households.To evaluate the influence of the change in the household composition, the standard of automobile ownership was used. The forecasted fleet of Belo Horizonte will rise until 2035, reaching 743.214 automobiles. In 2007, the observed fleet already corresponded to 730.468 automobiles, indicating the additional effect of others variables, for example, the economical ones.