Estrutura etária brasileira: decomposição segundo variações na fecundidade e na mortalidade

Abstract

The present work has as objective to estimate the effect of two demographic components, mortality and fertility, on the Brazilian population aging process. In order to show that both demographic components are responsible for long term changes in the Brazilian age structure, this study applies stable population models. In this way, we compare the Brazilian quasi-stable population of 1950 against the expected stable population in 2100. The results show that fertility effects on the population age structure are much stronger than the mortality effects. In the long run, therefore, the cumulative effect of fertility decline will overwhelm the cumulative mortality effect on the population aging. In order to identify the factors responsible for population aging, in the second part of this study we decompose the variation into population mean age, crude mortality and birth rates and specific growth rates, during distinguished stages of the Brazilian demographic transition. The outcomes generally show that the mortality changes will be concentrate at the old ages of the population. However, the results indicate that the fertility component still has an overwhelming role in the process of population age structure. Moreover, this work shows that specific growth rates are very useful as well, once it gives the past information of fertility, mortality and migration in any population.