Ciclos econômicos e a composição da pobreza no Brasil

Abstract

This work aims to study and to analyze the impact of macroeconomic cycles over poverty composition in contemporaneous Brazilian economy (1987 2005). Specifically, intends to find answers to three questions: first, who are the demographic groups the most suffer in the recessive cycles; second, if is the economic growth enough to benefit all groups most associated with poverty; third, what are the macroeconomic policy most associated with poverty and with its soothing. The study have used an interaction of micro data form PNAD with macroeconomic data of sources like IPEA-DATA, Banco Central do Brasil and Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional, both in individual level and in court level. Using logistical regressions, pooled ordinary least squares and pseudo-panel, the work found two main results. First, recessions, or even the economic desaccelerations, are more harmful to people with less schooling. Second, fiscal policy affects more intensely poverty: both the primary surplus is more associated with less levels of welfare, and the social policy of Federal Government can be used to sooth poverty in the critical stages of the cycles.