Comportamento eleitoral e estratégia partidária: uma análise espaço-temporal das eleições de SP e MG a partir dos conceitos de inovação e representação sociais

Abstract

The present work is encompassed by the general theme of electoral behavior and party strategy, and is intended to be a contribution to that topic for applying a perspective that emphasizes social and spatial dependence. One of the main epistemological perspectives that refer to the rationale behind electoral decision-making is based on economic science, particularly on presuppositions of individual rationality derived from classical microeconomic theory. However, conceptions developed by regional and social economy have been criticizing the atomistic view of rational choice, especially in the context of social decisions. This work analyzes forms of social interaction in order to confront two types of influence with impact on electoral behavior: on the one hand, a conformist one, distinctive for its asymmetrical nature, in which the major political group gives the tune of the democratic process; on the other hand, a non-conformist type in which an ideologically-active, politically-engaged minority seeks to strengthen the influence of its opinions by asserting its difference from the values of the majority, by applying a non-imposing and symmetric pressure based on the exchange of opinions, and by adopting a consistent and firm behavior. The influence of that opposing minority would be a consequence of its innovative and original behavior, structured by processes of social representation, or, more specifically, by mechanisms of production of ideas that can be diffused on time-space dimensions.The aim of the study is to verify if restricted conditions for social innovation would explain the electoral context in which left parties did not win the regional elections in the states of São Paulo and Minas Gerais in Brazil after the re-democratization process, giving particular consideration to the period from 1994 to 2006. By analyzing spatial clusters, poor social background and intra-regional inequalities proved to be factors that hinder the diffusion of distinct and non-traditional ideas, representing a motive to opposing parties to abandon programmatic positions in favor of pragmatic and moderate strategies. Examining the evolution of the Workers Party (PT) in São Paulo and using as method locally linear expansion regression models, it was verified that there were social and territorial conditions for a programmatic electoral advance, although this possibility get debilitated by a growing dependence in relation to the charismatic image of the President Lula. In Minas Gerais, it was inferred that the PT have had strong motivations to progress in a pragmatic manner due to intra-regional inequalities that could cause discontinuity and lack of social communication across its territory.