Mobilidade ocupacional e incompatibilidade educacional no Brasil Metropolitano

Abstract

Occupational mobility in the Brazilian metropolitan labor market is analyzed considering a supply and demand framework. This study focus on four types of occupational mobility: overeducated ascending mobility, undereducated descending mobility and adequate ascending and descending mobility, using data from the Pesquisa Mensal do Emprego (IBGE) over the 2002-2008 period, based on a birth-cohort synthetic panel estimation. The objective is to verify whether cyclical labor market conditions affect the ascending and descending mobility, both determined in the context of the education-occupation mismatch at the individual occupations level. Thus, the effects of business cycle, composition of the labor force, period and cohort are addressed to explain these mobilities.The results show that the unemployment rate affects the propensity to change occupations, both on the ascending and descending mobility. Thus, the interpretations on the overeducation literature that concentrate only on the supply side to explain the empirical stylized facts have not considered the role of the demand side in increasing the probabilities of leaving the mismatch. In addition, the birth cohort effects evidence greater chances to become an adequate worker at the earlier stages of the careers for the over- and undereducated. The procyclical behavior of the overeducated ascending mobility is explicit evidence that when jobs are easy to find, it is also easier to change occupations toward one that matches required and attained education. Finally, the time horizon of overeducation in the labor market also depends on the business cycle, which influences the short- or long-run characteristics of the phenomenon for individuals.