Simulações de distribuição espacial domiciliar e projeções demográficas intraurbanas com apoio de geotecnologias

Abstract

This dissertation is composed of three independent articles, which are preceded by an introductory chapter and followed by concluding remarks. The main purpose is to describe and apply a methodology of forecasting the spatial distribution of households in the Belo Horizonte Metropolitan Area (RMBH), Brazil. Related to this methodological purpose, the dissertation aims to offer instruments and empirical grounds to inform public policies for urban and regional planning in the Metropolitan Area of Belo Horizonte given the findings about potential vectors of growth in the demand for housing in the RMBH. The data sources included the decennial demographic censuses and spatial data from urban sprawl. The first article maps the urban sprawl of the RMBH over the years of 1991-2000-2010. Using data from the Geographic Information System (GIS) and cellular automata (CA), the model forecasts the urban growth of the RMBH in the years 2020 and 2030. The second article uses data from the 2000 and 2010 demographic census, CA and dasymetric mapping techniques to forecast the urban growth and densification by census track by 2020 and 2030 as well as the expected number of households in Belo Horizonte. The third article describes the dasymetric mapping technique applied in the GIS and its application to estimate the maximum number of households that Belo Horizonte can host if all vacant land lots are occupied and buildings able for demolition are renewed. The findings might help fostering the use of geotecnologies in demographic forecasts and in simulations of patterns of urban land use, as well as to help design policies that alleviate some of the negative consequences associated with urban expansion and population growth.