Vulnerabilidade das famílias à pobreza: uma análise empírica em seis regiões metropolitanas (2002 a 2011)

Abstract

Vulnerability to poverty is the likelihood today of falling into poverty in the future. The household poverty level observed is an ex post measure of well-being or a lack of well-being. On the other hand the vulnerability is an ex ante measure of welfare, since it is built to reflect the future prospects of the household. This study aims to estimate the probability today that household income will fall below a defined poverty line in the next year, based on data from the Monthly Employment Survey Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME/IBGE), for the period 2002-2011. The analysis are carried out to six metropolitan regions: São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Porto Alegre, Salvador and Recife. The households income is defined as an indicator of wellbeing. The results indicate a decrease in the vulnerability to poverty over the analyzed period. Additionally, the observed decrease in the vulnerability is even more pronounced when incomes - such as pensions, private and public transfers, investment earnings and rents - are added to labor earnings. Furthermore, it is possible to verify that the vulnerability associated with labor income is more associated with permanent poverty, while the vulnerability related to total income is better distributed among poverty categories. Being male, having higher education and successful insertion into the formal labor market, are characteristics of the household head that are associated with a lower likelihood that household income will fall below a defined poverty line in the next period. Thus, the results suggest that the public policies intended to a higher access to formal education and the professional qualification programs are important to decrease the household vulnerability to poverty in brasilian metropolitan regions.