Disponibilidade de mão de obra qualificada para o curto e médio prazo: uma proposta metodológica aplicada ao caso dos engenheiros em Minas Gerais

Abstract

This type of study is particularly important for policy makers as well as to the private sector, who have been entrusted with planning, already anticipating the difficulties that can be faced in the future. We analyze the growth of the population of engineers and their distribution by age and sex from 1980 to 2010 in Brazil and in Minas Gerais in order to better understand the demographic dynamics of this population. Meanwhile, compared with the population with higher education in general and the population aged above 20 years. Later, held up a projection of the stock of these professionals, according to sex and age, 2010-2030. From the demographic point of view, this work is justified since Minas Gerais is facing a window of opportunity caused by the demographic bonus. Several authors argue that this is the ideal time to invest in skills among the population, since there is an increase in per capita income. In the specific case of engineers, this window of opportunity may be being boosted by the current economic scenario. An important methodological contribution of this work is the incorporation of the methodology for estimation and projection of the migration component of the engineers. The projection was made in three simulated scenarios, which point to a significant growth in the volume of engineers in the state in the coming decades. This growth will be accompanied by a rejuvenation and an increase in the relative share of women in the age structure of the population of engineers.