História da dinâmica climática global: uma contribuição a partir de análises dos periódicos nature e the economist (1992-2012)

Abstract

This study aims at discussing about the history of climatic dynamic on an earth scale basis from 1992 to 2012, having as primary sources the articles, cartoons and images which were published by Nature and The Economist journals. The chronological section includes the coverage of international climate conferences that had relevant media appeal: Rio-92, COP-3, Rio + 10, COP-13, COP-15 and Rio + 20. In this matter, we aim to: analyze the transformation process of the climate change theme of scientific proposition into an international issue of noticeable popular appeal, regarding the political and economic perspectives of the studied period; to make clear that the ecological-climate crisis presents itself as representation of latent signs of civilizational vicissitudes and/or the current industrial society. Therefore, it is intended to put together the several small pieces of political, economic and scientific puzzles from the theoretical support of the History of Science, especially Ludwig Flecks studies. Regarding the choice of the corpus studied, the research tried to contrast three groups and/or styles of thought considered representative of the scientific controversies on global anthropic climate change in the aforementioned context. The assumptions presented by such groups would be: 1st) those who believe that there is a climate change already under way; 2nd) those who are skeptical about climate changes and 3rd) the scientists who, faced with the interactions of a large number of climatic elements and their variations, which constitute the climate of the planet, prefer to assume a position of doubts. As part of guiding hypotheses, we consider that: there was a tendency of supremacy over the arguments presented by the group which defends the climate change from the studied media; even if such publications have assumed the existence of a scenario of global climate change and conveying mitigating and resilient proposals related to climate (such as the use and development of new energy sources), but do not forcefully argue the structural basis of the contemporary capitalist system. In addition, we also pointed out that the creation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was not intended to develop studies and indeed to check, whether a change in the earth's climate is actually occurring, merely to prove the existence of such a process, legitimizing it. In this sense, the present study deals with the history, the functioning, the importance as well as the limitations of the climate models of circulation (CMC), main instruments of investigation and prediction of the global climate peculiarities at present time.