Análise DuPont como ferramenta de apoio às decisões de investimento em ações

Abstract

The goal of this research is to examine whether DuPont Analysis indicators have explanatory power regarding the firms future profitability. In addition, we sought to investigate the utility of stock investing strategy, upon signals taken from the components of a DuPont Analysis. The tests were performed in Brazilian publicly traded companies with shares on Bovespa, restricting the scope to financial and services companies, as well as firms who had a low liquidity of the stock in the period studied, which was from 1998 to 2009. Initially, we analyzed the indicators used in the models, according to the proposal of some authors (Silva, 2008; Assaf Neto, 2007; Stickney e Weil, 2001) in order to adopt a appropriate format for the calculus indexes. Then, through a descriptive analysis it was possible to determine the composition and growth of the corporates profitability, as well as the different levels of the financial leverage. Consistent with previous research (Fairfield and Yohn, 2001; Nissin and Penman, 2003; Soliman, 2008) and accounting intuition, the evidences found confirm that changes in the Asset Turnover have explanatory power regarding the changes in the subsequent Return on Assets, which aggregates information for the inferences, as addendum to the explanatory variables ROA and ROA. To verify the utility of the investment strategy there were proposed two methods, the DP Score and the Standard Aggregated Index. The results confirmed the relevance of the indicators of DuPont model to investment decisions in the Brazilian capital market. Additional tests showed a reduction in the utility of the models during the economic crisis, maintaining, however, the ability to distinguish good and bad investment choices in stocks.