Projeção de impactos econômicos do Programa Minha Casa, Minha Vida: uma abordagem de equilíbrio geral computável

Abstract

This study evaluates the economic impacts of the investment project generated by the housing program Minha Casa, Minha Vida (PMCMV), launched by the federal government in April 2009, through the use of a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The programs goal is to allow one million families with incomes up to ten minimum wages have access to own houses, and also employment and income generation and strengthening of social inclusion policy. The estimated cost of the program is $ 34 billion and the allocation of one million houses financed by PMCMV regards the composition of housing deficit in each state. The economic impacts assessed include growth rate of gross domestic product and employment, both at regional and national levels, and the level of inequality between the units of the federation. Initially, we evaluate the impacts of investment allocation proposed by the program. Furthermore, we analyze alternative regional allocations of the same amount of resources, leading to different regional and national results, such as largest increase in the rate of gross domestic product or greater reduction in inequality among the units of the federation.