O microcrédito como instrumento de inclusão financeira e desenvolvimento humano: análise de risco das operações de microcrédito por bancos governamentais brasileiros à luz das técnicas de duração e convexidade

Abstract

Microcredit, in addition to being an instrument of financial inclusion and human development, is a loan that is one of the important issues studied by the area of financial management. In this study, will be addressed in relation to the management of credit risk. This research presents the operations of microfinance banks and Brazilian government conducts a risk analysis by the techniques of duration and convexity. We chose to use research techniques for quantitative and qualitative analysis aiming to establish results that could corroborate or counter the consolidated knowledge on the subject. The results confirm that the microcredit operations at risk. The risk measures used showed that in a situation of economic instability, which will be verified a significant variation of the reference rate, such transactions represent a high risk of loss to the institutions, as the authors point studied. The results confirmed the expected trends: that the higher the modified duration, the greater the price volatility of bonds, a bond or a bond portfolio duration will be determined with the more convex the greater the dispersion of cash flows; measures of duration and convexity show that microcredit operations with lower interest rates and higher maturity have a higher risk for the institution, the lower the maturity of an option, the shorter its duration, which represents the lowest risk for institution. The results obtained in the qualitative analysis performed showed risks in microfinance operations, due to bureaucratic obstacles to the granting of the requested amount; lack of staff trained to provide in microfinance institutions, financial advisory services to each borrower; unpreparedness of the entrepreneur as the overall management of the business; lack of operability of the network of collaboration suggested by Growing Program, an initiative of the Federal Government to support business management through access to credit oriented. We suggest further studies in other countries with the longest history of microcredit for the analysis of industry regulations, methods of risk assessment and concession operations.