Simulações dos efeitos de mudança nos diferenciais de mortalidade e fecundidade sobre variáveis socioeconômicas no Brasil de 1970 a 2008

Abstract

The objective of this study is to analyze the effects that changes on mortality and fertility by socioeconomic status (SES) causes on the populations composition and hence on indicators of income, occupation, education and inequality. To this purpose, there was conducted a counterfactual exercise that simulated the composition of the Brazilian household heads population in 2008, assuming different mortality and fertility scenarios. The simulation modified each weight of households head and changed, as a consequence, the composition of simulated population. To obtain the new weights there were used estimates of fertility and mortality by SES group obtained through indirect methods (the Brass Child Mortality and the Brass P/F) from the Brazilian censuses of 1970, 1980, 2000 and 2010. The database of households heads of the 2008 Social Mobility Reserch (IESP - UERJ) was the simulations base and the SES groups were defined by using the respondent's mother's education, and the region and rural-urban status of households birth. The results showed that the impacts of differences in mortality and fertility are little significant over the socioeconomic variables analyzed. However, each cohortseducation, occupation and income tend to decline when mortality levels decline maintaining constant its differentials, while they tend to increase with the reduction of the fertility differentials despite the falling of its levels. The methodology was not adequate to verify the effects over income inequality.