Avaliação técnico-econômica de projetos de eficiência energética em mineração utilizando a teoria das opções reais

Abstract

In this present work, a technical-economic evaluation of an energy efficiency project applied to the generation and distribution system of compressed air in an iron mining industry was performed, using conventional methods and the Real Options Theory. By a traditional cash flow, the Net Present Value (NPV) is calculated, being negative and equal to R$ 34,477.68. Subsequently, the prediction about iron ore price behavior is studied, generating a deterministic cash flow analysis with positive NPV equal to R$ 97,022.04. Afterwards, the ore price behavior is modeled by a Geometric Brownian Motion, resulting in a histogram of the project NPV distribution, which average was R$ 97,161.90. Finally, a binomial decision tree is mounted and the postponement and expansion flexibilities are identified, being incorporated into the model to analyze the Real Options Theory. By this analysis, the deferral option and the option to expand in the 5th period are not beneficial for the project. However, the option to expand in the 1st period was able to add value to the decision process, increasing the project NPV to R$ 219,427.62. Therefore, by using the Real Options Theory, it was possible to capture the existing managerial flexibilities in the project, complementing the traditional viability analysis and increasing the NPV of the energy efficiency project in mining examined in this dissertation.