Análise da dinâmica da distribuição urbana de mercadorias ante uma situação de vulnerabilidade: explorando uma abordagem multiagente

Abstract

The increasing volume of production, consumption and movement of goods and services in a region favors its economic expansion, generates a significant increase on the demand for transport, which causes negative impacts on the social, economic and environmental order. Within this context, the urban transport of goods must be an important component on the urban planning, and its rationalization is essential not only to the success of the supply chain, but also to the sustainable economic growth. Thus, arises a new area, focused on the transport planning, known as urban logistics, that, in order to suit the current market features, must be dynamic, requiring agility and flexibility to deal with crucial and unexpected situations, defined as vulnerability. This study aims, through the support of multi-agent modeling, to evaluate the dynamic of the urban distribution of goods in front of a situation of vulnerability. The investigations were founded on the agents objectives and their individual behaviors and the results were presented in terms of environmental and financial impacts. For this purpose, we sought to comprehend the three big themes that concerns this research: urban logistics, vulnerability and multi-agent modeling and to relate studies that have already been carried out involving the vulnerability, mainly regarding flooding, to the studies of modeling, and then, to create a model and to analyze a response measure to the urban distribution in front of a situation of vulnerability. The simulation results enabled us to verify the consistency of the adopted theoretical foundations and the coherence of the analytical routines used on the model construction. The results still showed the viability and the potentiality of the application of this modeling on the analysis of incidental impacts and measures to decrease them, on the perspective of urban logistics. The analyzed indicators permitted us to conclude that the disclosure of alerts to population, since it is well used, can be the solution in incidental situations, for urban logistic. The research opens, on this way, a wide field to new studies related to load urban transport.