A queda da fecundidade nas Minas e nos Gerais: um estudo ecológico

Abstract

The study analyzes fertility decline in 66 microregions of the State of Minas Gerais, over the period 1970-2000. It identifies the factors that eventually influenced this process and by that token, aims to reduce lack of data concerning the transition of fertility at small areas level in Minas Gerais. The fertility decline had similar speed and patterns to that experienced by Brazil in the last three decades. The results shows that total fertility rate (TFR) moved from 6.4 children per woman to 2.2, i. e., very close to the population replacement level. In the first two decades (1970s and 1980s), fertility reduction was impressive (32,4% and 27,1%respectively) in comparison nineties (5.8%), indicating the end of the fertility transition. The process started in the better off regions Minas and by now a few regions in the North and Jequitinhonha Valley Gerais- present TFR above 3,0. Among the explicative variables considered for each period, the statistical analyses were significant concerning educational level (IDH education) and urbanization process. The proportional increase of childbirth in hospitals was important at the beginning of the process (1980) while deliveries through Caesarean played an important role in 2000. The period / cohort approach shows that cohort rates always present lower values than period rates thus suggesting that, in the short term, the majority of the microregions will present a reproductive behavior at even lower levels. This phenomenon, if associated with mortality reduction is responsible for one of the mostimportant changes in the age structure of de population with proportional and absolute reduction in the number of births and the beginning of the population aging process. This scenario must necessarily base the redefinition of priorities in the implementation of social polices (including and primarily health care) in order to meet up new demands that cometogether with this emerging age pattern.