Dinâmica volátil dos fluxos de capitais e vulnerabilidade financeira em países da América do Sul: fatores determinantes e análise de propostas para a sua redução

Abstract

This thesis focuses its analysis on the study of South American countries financial vulnerability. These countries due to structural factors ,which have historical determinants, are placed in a subordinate position in the international financial market. They are not only commercially dependent to other countries, but also financially. The aim of this thesis was to articulate this dual dependence and highlight the complexity of financial dependence, indicating that it has evolved as the globalization process is moving forward. The "financial subordination" is related to the presence of a hierarchy between the different currencies traded on international markets. This subordination factor corresponds to one of the elements that explain the profile of capital flows destined to these countries, which have a more volatile behavior and may undergo abrupt reversals. Considering the volatility of this capital flows have specific determinants, the main concern of the Thesis is to produce a "new" external vulnerability concept, more complex, covering these specific elements influencing the dynamics of capital flows directed to these countries. This new concept is built accordingly to the heterodox , more particularly Keynesian and the post Keynesian, approach. The thesis proposes a methodology to test the hypothesis that peripheral countries, more specifically south American countries, that do not have a strong currency and have strong financial openness, are greatly affected by factors that are determined by the speculative dynamics of global financial markets. Along with this proposal the thesis also explores the financial integration process in South America, emphasizing that the recent proposals do not consider the financial vulnerability in its entire complexity. The main concern is to demonstrate that the possibility of abrupt reversals of resources requires protection mechanisms, and the fortification of institutions which are less dependent on reading that the creditor countries have on debtors and more concerned with countries specificities.