As transformações recentes da dinâmica migratória no Nordeste do Brasil

Abstract

This thesis deals with the recent transformations in the migration patterns in the Northeast Region of Brazil. Formerly characterized in the past as an area of great population looser, currently this part of the Brazilian territory has improved its conditions of population retention, given the decreasing of inter-regional emigration flows. In addition, population exchanges at the intra-regional level became proportionally more important, although it also demonstrated a decrease in total volume. By the use of the Kitagawa decomposition, it was described the parcels from the variations in Net Migration Rates and Interregional Gross Emigration Rates, between the fixed date periods 1986-1991 and 2005-2010, which are due to fluctuations in the rates of effects of population aging by reducing the population contingent more willing to migrate. Then, the same decompositions were used in order to capture the same effects in the differences between the same inter-regional and intra-regional rates, between the same five years periods for each of the Northeastern Comparative Minimal Areas (AMC). These procedures were performed separately for the male and female populations, and it was verified that, mainly for the women, there is a composition effect favoring the lower net population losses and the lower emigration, even though the effects level of the rates were bigger. This was due to the fact that the female population was older, and the same trend was observed in most AMC. It was also observed that, at the intraregional level, there is a higher proportion of AMC with composition effect favoring population retention. Finally, a Markovian modeling was applied to verify the likelihood of transition of AMCs between latent states of similar migratory characteristics, and it was concluded that there is a small probability of repulsive localities and small populations moving to a situation of lower losses or positive migratory balances, in addition to attractive locals have even smaller chances of becoming pockets of population losses, mainly at the intraregional level.